How Has Your Real Estate Performed in the Long Run? Ray White Gordon/St Ives Comments

By Sima Akbarian

Real estate in Australia has really recovered from previous dips in the market, especially in the last year or two. However, there have been pockets that have led the charge in property values, greatly affecting the nation’s average results, and perhaps distorting our views of the market as a whole.

According to CoreLogic RP Data, the combined average capital city home value increase over the last five years was 19.7 per cent. However, when taken in isolation, it can be a tale of two cities – and the rest.

Sydney has recorded a massive 35.5 per cent growth over the last half decade – however in the five years previous only racked up 13.1 per cent growth. Melbourne real estate grew in value by 20.3 per cent over the last five years, but this is only a shadow of its former glory – 53.5 per cent for the five years to December 2009.

It is important to note that the last five years included the effects of the GFC and the subsequent recovery period, while the half-decade preceding December 2009 is comprised of the unsustainable ramp up to that period. The combined capitals average for that period was 36.3 per cent, while the five years to December 2004 featured a growth rate of 77 per cent across all capitals.

In the five years to December 2004, Hobart was the star performer, with a 157.4 per cent increase in dwelling prices, according to CoreLogic RP Data’s figures. This did not bode well for the city though, as the following five years saw values grow by a much more conservative 28.8 per cent. In the last five years it was the only capital to record decreasing values (negative 7.2 per cent).

It would seem that houses for sale in Sydney and Melbourne are dominating the national real estate market, while values outside of these hotspots are growing at much more moderate rates. This has been a continuing trend since the GFC, according to CoreLogic RP Data.

Analysing the results of the index over time reveals a slowing in the growth of home values, which is consistent with a more stable and sustainable economy. While there have been periods over the past five years when home values have actually decreased, these mini-fluctuations in the market seem to be ironed out by the long term trends.

Essentially, for those looking to extract serious capital gains from their properties, the message seems to be to get in early and sit tight for quite a while.

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